Labour Market Outlook: Spring 2020

Labour demand

LMO data suggests the job market will take a significant turn for the worse over the coming three months.

Employment growth has decreased the most in hospitality, transport and business services. However, employment intentions remain strong in healthcare and public administration.

The current state of the economy will have a significant impact on the earnings of UK employees. Median basic pay expectations for the next 12 months are for a 1% increase overall (down from 2%).

The proportion of employers intending to make redundancies over the next few months has increased relatively modest from 16% to 21%. Redundancies appear to have – at least in the short term – been avoided as a result of the introduction of the Government’s Job Retention Scheme. 

The Job Retention Scheme has saved approximately 4.2 million jobs from redundancy to date. 

Employers are also using a variety of tactics to stave off redundancies. For example, increasing the ability of employees to work from home, adopting a wider range of flexible working arrangements as well as other measures such as freezing recruitment and pay. 

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